Would Cersei’s life be different without Maggy the Frog’s prophecy?

Potential Spoilers Below

The Wheel of Time: The Fortelling

Elaida clenched her fist as though she held all the rebels by the throat. Or Alviarin. “I mean to break them, daughter. They will split open like a rotten melon.” Her secret assured that, however many farmers and tailors Lord Bryne hung on to, but let the other woman think as she would. Suddenly the Foretelling took hold of her, a certainty about things she could not see stronger than if they had been laid out before her. She would have been willing to step blindly over a cliff on that certainty. “The White Tower will be whole again, except for remnants cast out and scorned, whole and stronger than ever. Rand al’Thor will face the Amyrlin Seat and know her anger. The Black Tower will be rent in blood and fire, and sisters will walk its grounds. This I Foretell.”

Elaida

Elaida and Alviarin

Visiting the Black Tower

The Game of Thrones: The Prophecy

The sorceress was sleeping in the dream, as once she’d slept in life. Leave her be, the queen wanted to cry out. You little fools, never wake a sleeping sorceress. Without a tongue, she could only watch as the girl threw off her cloak, kicked the witch’s bed, and said, “Wake up, we want our futures told.”

When Maggy the Frog opened her eyes, Jeyne Farman gave a frightened squeak and fled the tent, plunging headlong back into the night. Plump stupid timid little Jeyne, pasty-faced and fat and scared of every shadow. She was the wise one, though. Jeyne lived on Fair Isle still. She had married one of her lord brother’s bannermen and whelped a dozen children.

Cersei - Melara - Maggy the Frog

The old woman’s eyes were yellow, and crusted all about with something vile. In Lannisport it was said that she had been young and beautiful when her husband had brought her back from the east with a load of spices, but age and evil had left their marks on her. She was short, squat, and warty, with pebbly greenish jowls. Her teeth were gone and her dugs hung down to her knees. You could smell sickness on her if you stood too close, and when she spoke her breath was strange and strong and foul. “Begone,” she told the girls, in a croaking whisper.

“We came for a foretelling,” young Cersei told her.

Cersei

“Begone,” croaked the old woman, a second time.

“We heard that you can see into the morrow,” said Melara. “We just want to know what men we’re going to marry.”

“Begone,” croaked Maggy, a third time.

Listen to her, the queen would have cried if she had her tongue. You still have time to flee. Run, you little fools!

The girl with the golden curls put her hands upon her hips. “Give us our foretelling, or I’ll go to my lord father and have you whipped for insolence.”

“Please,” begged Melara. “Just tell us our futures, then we’ll go.”

“Some are here who have no futures,” Maggy muttered in her terrible deep voice. She pulled her robe about her shoulders and beckoned the girls closer. “Come, if you will not go. Fools. Come, yes. I must taste your blood.”

Melara paled, but not Cersei. A lioness does not fear a frog, no matter how old and ugly she might be. She should have gone, she should have listened, she should have run away. Instead she took the dagger Maggy offered her, and ran the twisted iron blade across the ball of her thumb. Then she did Melara too.

In the dim green tent, the blood seemed more black than red. Maggy’s toothless mouth trembled at the sight of it. “Here,” she whispered, “give it here.” When Cersei offered her hand, she sucked away the blood with gums as soft as a newborn babe’s. The queen could still remember how queer and cold her mouth had been.

“Three questions may you ask,” the crone said, once she’d had her drink. “You will not like my answers. Ask, or begone with you.”

Go, the dreaming queen thought, hold your tongue, and flee. But the girl did not have sense enough to be afraid.

“When will I wed the prince?” she asked.

“Never. You will wed the king.”

Beneath her golden curls, the girl’s face wrinkled up in puzzlement. For years after, she took those words to mean that she would not marry Rhaegar until after his father Aerys had died. “I will be queen, though?” asked the younger her.

“Aye.” Malice gleamed in Maggy’s yellow eyes. “Queen you shall be . . . until there comes another, younger and more beautiful, to cast you down and take all that you hold dear.”

Anger flashed across the child’s face. “If she tries I will have my brother kill her.” Even then she would not stop, willful child as she was. She still had one more question due her, one more glimpse into her life to come. “Will the king and I have children?” she asked.

“Oh, aye. Six-and-ten for him, and three for you.”

That made no sense to Cersei. Her thumb was throbbing where she’d cut it, and her blood was dripping on the carpet. How could that be? she wanted to ask, but she was done with her questions.

The old woman was not done with her, however. “Gold shall be their crowns and gold their shrouds,” she said. “And when your tears have drowned you, the valonqar shall wrap his hands about your pale white throat and choke the life from you.”

“What is a valonqar? Some monster?” The golden girl did not like that foretelling. “You’re a liar and a warty frog and a smelly old savage, and I don’t believe a word of what you say. Come away, Melara. She is not worth hearing.”

The Wheel of Time: Actions taken because of the foretelling

She made a plan to kidnap the Dragon Reborn and place him under the thumb of the White Tower and herself as Amyrlin.  She thought this was the part of her foretelling that said he would face the Amyrlin Seat and know her anger.  That plan was thwarted when Perrin attacked the Aes Sedai that held Rand captive at the Battle of Dumai’s Wells.  There Rand escaped after being beaten and kept in a box.  The effect changed the world forever as in the end the first Aes Sedai swore fealty to the Dragon Reborn due to his ta’veren twisting of fate.

The Battle of Dumai's Wells

Later that day, Lirene Doirellin said, “Yes, Elaida made a vital mistake there,” pacing up and down in front of her sitting room’s fireplace. The Cairhienin sister was only a little shorter than Egwene, but the nervous way her eyes darted gave her the air of a hunted thing, a sparrow fearful of cats and convinced there were lots of cats in the vicinity. Her dark green skirts had only four discreet slashes of red, though she had been a Sitter once. “That proclamation of hers, on top of trying to kidnap him, could not have been better calculated to keep the al’Thor boy as far from the Tower as he can stay. Oh, she has made mistakes, Elaida has.”

Egwene wanted to ask about Rand and the kidnapping— kidnapping?—but Lirene left no opening as she went on about Elaida’s many mistakes, all the while pacing back and forth, her eyes darting and her hands twisting unconsciously. Egwene was unsure whether or not that session could be called a success, but at least it was not a failure. And she had learned something. Not all of her forays went so well, of course.

Elaida is being blackmailed by Alviarin:

With an effort, Elaida kept her hand away from her cheek. She did not need a mirror to tell her it was red. She had to be careful. Seaine had found nothing yet, or she would have come. Alviarin could open her mouth before the Hall and reveal the whole disastrous kidnapping of the al’Thor boy. She might see her deposed, and stilled and birched with that alone, but Alviarin had another string to her bow.

Seaine

“Toveine is to lead fifty sisters and two hundred of the Tower Guards to Caemlyn, to this Black Tower, where they will gentle any man they find able to channel and hang him, along with as many others as they can take alive.” Alviarin did not even blink at the violation of Tower law. Elaida had spoken the truth as she meant it to be; with this, with everything, she was Tower law. “For that matter, hang up the dead as well. Let them be a warning to any man who thinks of touching the True Source. Have Toveine attend me. I will want to hear her plan.”

But like all her plans this one failed also.  She wouldn’t believe that there were as many men at the Black Tower who could channel and the Aes Sedai that she sent were overpowered and some were made into Warders.

After Egwene, the Amyrlin Seat of the Rebel Aes Sedai that split from the White Tower, was taken captive by the Elaida she was demoted to novice and received frequent beatings at the hand of Silviana Brehon who was Mistress of Novices.  That part of Elaida’s plan also backfired because Egwene never broke and ended up turning the Tower to her side.  Eventually she was made Amyrlin of the Tower made whole again and she was the one whom Rand faced her anger on the Field of Merrilor.

Silviana

The Game of Thrones: Actions taken because of the prophecy

Cersei to this point is Queen Regent, has wed the King, and had three children and has seen Robert have 16 bastard born kids of his own.  She fears Margarey as the younger queen, she fears for her remaining two children with the death of Joffrey and her death at the hands of the valonqar.

She tries to have Tyrion killed because she believes him to be the valonqar.

Tyrion

So why is a valonqar important?  In High Valyrian it means “little brother.”  So now we know why she feels the way she feels about Tyrion but as she has with everything else I believe she has misinterpreted this also.  See if you follow my logic with the conversation she has with Ned when he confronts her about Jaime being the father of her children:

“Your brother?” Ned said. “Or your lover?”

“Both.” She did not flinch from the truth. “Since we were children together. And why not? The Targaryens wed brother to sister for three hundred years, to keep the bloodlines pure. And Jaime and I are more than brother and sister. We are one person in two bodies. We shared a womb together. He came into this world holding my foot, our old maester said. When he is in me, I feel … whole.” The ghost of a smile flitted over her lips.

This means that Jaime is also her little brother as she was first out of the womb. 

She kidnaps Alayaya thinking that she is the whore that Tyrion brought to King's Landing against their fathers wishes

Chataya and Alayaya 

King's Landing

Tyrion responds to her with the following:

Her blood still marked him as he looked down at the queen. “I have never liked you, Cersei, but you were my own sister, so I never did you harm. You’ve ended that. I will hurt you for this. I don’t know how yet, but give me time. A day will come when you think yourself safe and happy, and suddenly your joy will turn to ashes in your mouth, and you’ll know the debt is paid.”

She uses Tyrion’s own words against him in trying to convict him after he is put on trial for poisoning Joffrey at the Purple Wedding.

Joffrey poisoned

Cersei blaming Tyrion for Joffrey's death

Cersei at Tyrion's trial repeating back his own words

She hatches a plan to take down Margaery Tyrell as she believes that she is the young queen to come along and cast her down and take all that she holds dear.

Cersei really doesn't like Margaery

She sleeps with Ser Osney Kettleblack to entice him kill the previous High Septon.  She also wants him to sleep with Margaery and then confess his crimes to the current High Septon and tells him that she will have King Tommen send him to the Wall where he will kill the Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch Jon Snow.  But like everything else she does it backfired.  Her conversation with the High Septon:

Jon Snow

“He told you the truth. He came to you of his own free will and confessed his sins.”

“Aye. He did that. I have heard many men confess, Your Grace, but seldom have I heard a man so pleased to be so guilty.”

“You whipped him!”

“There can be no penance without pain. No man should spare himself the scourge, as I told Ser Osney. I seldom feel so close to god as when I am being whipped for mine own wickedness, though my darkest sins are no wise near as black as his.”

“B-but,” she sputtered, “you preach the Mother’s mercy . . .”

“Ser Osney shall taste of that sweet milk in the afterlife. In The Seven-Pointed Star it is written that all sins may be forgiven, but crimes must still be punished. Osney Kettleblack is guilty of treason and murder, and the wages of treason are death.”

The Seven-Pointed Star

He is just a priest, he cannot do this. “It is not for the Faith to condemn a man to death, whatever his offense.”

“Whatever his offense.” The High Septon repeated the words slowly, weighing them. “Strange to say, Your Grace, the more diligently we applied the scourge, the more Ser Osney’s offenses seemed to change. He would now have us believe that he never touched Margaery Tyrell. Is that not so, Ser Osney?”

Osney Kettleblack opened his eyes. When he saw the queen standing there before him he ran his tongue across his swollen lips, and said, “The Wall. You promised me the Wall.”

“He is mad,” said Cersei. “You have driven him mad.”

“Ser Osney,” said the High Septon, in a firm, clear voice, “did you have carnal knowledge of the queen?”

“Aye.” The chains rattled softly as Osney twisted in his shackles. “That one there. She’s the queen I fucked, the one sent me to kill the old High Septon. He never had no guards. I just come in when he was sleeping and pushed a pillow down across his face.”

Cersei whirled, and ran.

The Wheel of Time: The reason why Cersei’s punishment was what is was IMO

Cadsuane was trying to make Rand ready for the Last Battle.  Because Elaida had thrown a monkey wrench in her plans when she tried to have him kidnapped she said the following about the Aes Sedai, who were made into da'tsang by the Aiel Wise Ones, that had been part of that plan and now had pledged fealty to Rand:

Cadsuane snorted. “They deserve whatever happens to them.” She had not been allowed near the Aiel tents herself, nor had any of her companions, but some of the fools who had sworn fealty to the al’Thor boy had ventured out to the sprawling encampment and come back whitefaced and torn between outrage and sicking up. Normally, she also would have been furious over the affront to Aes Sedai dignity, whatever the circumstances; not now. To achieve her goal, she would have run the entire White Tower through the streets naked. How could she concern herself with the discomfort of women who might have ruined everything?

The Game of Thrones:  Cersei’s punishment

Septa Unella stepped forward. “A sinner comes before you,” she declared. “She is Cersei of House Lannister, queen dowager, mother to His Grace King Tommen, widow of His Grace King Robert, and she has committed grievous falsehoods and fornications.”

Septa Moelle moved up on the queen’s right. “This sinner has confessed her sins and begged for absolution and forgiveness. His High Holiness has commanded her to demonstrate her repentance by putting aside all pride and artifice and presenting herself as the gods made her before the good people of the city.”

Septa Scolera finished. “So now this sinner comes before you with a humble heart, shorn of secrets and concealments, naked before the eyes of gods and men, to make her walk of atonement.”

So she makes her walk of shame naked through the streets of Kings Landing.  The small folk calling her names as she passes.

The Wheel of Time:  The end results

Egwene informs The Tower that she is a dreamer and that she had a dream that showed that Seanchan were going to attack but it is mostly ignored.  Later on as events unfold the following happens:

Elaida awoke to a very odd sensation. Why was her bed moving? Rippling, undulating. So rhythmic. And that wind! Had Carlya left the window open? If so, the maid would be beaten. She’d been warned. She’d been—

This was not her bed. Elaida opened her eyes and found herself looking down at a dark landscape hundreds of feet below. She was tied to the back of some strange beast. She couldn’t move. Why couldn’t she move? She reached for the Source, then felt a sudden, sharp pain, as though she had suddenly been beaten on every inch of her body with a thousand rods.

She reached up, dazed, feeling the collar at her throat. There was a dark figure riding in the saddle next to her; no lanterns lit the woman’s face, but Elaida could feel her somehow. Elaida could just barely remember spending time dangling in the air, tied to a rope, as she fell in and out of consciousness. When had she been pulled up? What was happening?

A voice whispered from the night. “I shall forgive that little mistake. You have been marath’damane for very long, and bad habits are to be expected. But you will not reach for the Source again without permission. Do you understand?”

“Release me!” Elaida bellowed.

The pain returned tenfold, and Elaida retched at the intensity of it. Her bile and sick-up fell over the side of the beast and dropped far to the ground below.

“Now, now,” the voice said, patient, like a woman speaking to a very young child. “You must learn. Your name is Suffa. And Suffa will be a good damane. Yes she will. A very, very good damane.”

A Sul'Dam and her Damane

Elaida screamed again, and this time, she didn’t stop when the pain came. She just kept screaming out into the uncaring night.

In the end Elaida was replaced as Amyrlin by Egwene who was younger as a matter of fact she was the youngest Amyrlin in Tower History.  Taking all that she held dear.

The Game of Thrones:  The end results

To me a lot of TWOT and ASOIAF are simply the same story told just with twists thrown in.  In ASOIAF everything is just turned up tenfold when it comes to tragedies.  Where Elaida lived out the rest of her existence as a damane; Cersei will most likely end up dead at the hands of Jaime, his hands at her throat.

Summation:  Both Elaida and Cersei are women who think those around them keep interfering with their plans for greatness.  They simply can't see that it is their plans that are flawed.  They see only what they want to see and have blinders on to what is really going on around them.  Whether their lives would have been different had they not had a foreshadowing of the future is up for debate.  For those of you who can’t see the correlation between these two characters you won’t be convinced of anything I say.  You wouldn’t believe me if I told you the sky was blue or that water was wet.  Those aren’t the people I am trying to reach anyway.  My only purpose is to show you that both are great books.  Because I am posting to the ASOIAF forum people think I am hating on GRRM.  I’m not as I continue to enjoy searching for answers as all the fans do.  I just read a book series that I think point to those answers.

Comments encouraged.  Love to hear the idea’s of others.  Most believe that since I present my idea’s as “fact like” I’m not open to change my viewpoints which is far from the truth.  I simply look at the information presented and go from there.  If you can shine a light on another way of thinking that opens the door to debate.